Wednesday, November 11, 2015

What we have gained since last Diwali



SCRIP
PURCHASE PRICE
Price as on 11-10-2015
GAIN
%AGE gain
ENTERTAINMENT NETWORK
410
639.80
229.8
56
EVEREADY IND
110
278.00
168
153
CENTURY PLYBOARDS
183
180.50
-2.5
-1
GRANULES
76
148.00
72
95
LLOYD ELECTRIC
180
267.00
87
48
NUCLEUS SOFTWARE
223
234.00
11
5
R S SOFTWARE
283
122.70
-160.3
-57
SUVEN LIFE SCIENCES
122
274.20
152.2
125
T V TODAY NETWORK
170
249.10
79.1
47
CHOLAMANDALAM FINANCE
610
622.00
12
2
ZICOM SECURITY
173
134.40
-38.6
-22
BAJAJ FINSERVE
1450
1950
500
34
overall gain
from last diwali to this diwali


40.35%

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Festivals are auspicious and joyful, not necessarily investment days...

The best way to invest this Diwali (or indeed, any Diwali) is to pretend that it's not Diwali. In other words, to have an un-Diwali investment strategy. I realise that this may sound sort of sacrilegious--perhaps it is--but investments are serious business and it's never a good idea to make investing decisions based on custom or habit or ceremony.
Diwali, like all other festivals, is a great time to celebrate, to be with friends and family and to conduct whatever rituals and traditions that are customary for your community. However, unlike many other festivals, Diwali is intertwined with wealth and investments and prosperity which gives it an additional aspect of being an auspicious time to invest.
However, any rational analysis as an investor would perforce lead one to the conclusion that there is no reason to treat a date--any date--as special. Whether the date is a calendar new year like January 1, or a traditional new year like Diwali, or the start of a new decade, it has no more significance to how you invest then your own birthday.
Therefore, just like one does for these other 'round number dates', I'd say that the investment strategy to be followed should depend entirely on what your needs are, and not on what the calendar shows. However, that immediately brings up the question of dealing with what your needs are and how to map them on to the investments you make.
The trick here is to divide your investments into specific financial goals, a goal being defined as the combination of a target amount and a target date. For example, you'll need money for your daughter's higher education after three years. You'd like to buy a house at least ten years before retirement. You'd like to go on a vacation to Europe after two years. You'd like Rs 2 lakh to always be available for emergencies.
Each of these goals is very precise. The risk you can take with it, as well as the amount of money needed can be quantified quite precisely. Therefore, it is relatively easy to decide what kind investments should be made for each of them. Instead each individual must have many portfolios, one for each financial goal. And then can you tune each portfolio's level of conservativeness or aggressiveness to the right level by choosing the right kind of assets

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Riding an ailing horse? for how long???

        Investment advisors' commonest lament is that investors are not patient with their investment. Investors buy and sell too often, and have an excessively short-term perspective. However, this is an impression that is primarily true of equity investors. Equity investors tend to sell their holdings for three possible reasons: one: they've made a loss, two: they've made a profit, and three: they've made neither a loss nor a profit.
         However, mutual fund investors seem to be guilty, if anything, of the reverse sin. There are far too many investors who hang on to mediocre funds for long periods of time, losing large chunks of potential returns. Upon compounding over many years, investors lose a majority of their returns too. Does that mean that investors should be trigger-happy about getting out of their investments? Not really. It means that most of us who invest in mutual funds need to distinguish short-term declines or under-performance from long-term poor performance.
          When I look at the assets being managed by equity funds, they naturally mirror the long-term performance of those funds. In general, funds that have done well have had good inflows and are thus managing a large amount of money, and vice versa. The interesting thing is that there are lot of anomalies to this. There are funds that are doing badly but have a lot of money to manage. Mostly, they are funds that have done well for extended periods of time in the past so have a set faithful investors who are hanging in. That makes sense.
          However, there are many funds that have never done well, have always lagged the markets as well as their peers and yet have thousands of crores of assets. The building up of these assets can be attributed to salesmanship, but the blame for its sustenance must go to investors who are not paying attention to their money. A lot of us have investments we are ignoring but which are bleeding potential returns. Investors need to weed out non-performers from their portfolios.