Friday, April 24, 2015

Technical Analysis, the relevance today...

          The technical analysis being used in equity and commodity trading is nothing but a predetermined mathematical model which indicate the trading pattern of a certain equity and based on psychological behavior of larger trading community. Greed, patience, fear etc have been mathematically modeled.      
                  Initially these were given by mathematicians after going deep into the trading behavior of majority and certain patterns were attached to a certain market condition of an underlying equity/commodity.Oversold, overbought, sideways movement, steady rise, relief rally etc are some of the trading patterns attached with certain values on the model like RSI, MACD, Averages etc
           Earlier,the technical analysis was based on trading behavior but now, in this age of information revolution, the trading behavior is influenced by technical analysis.The market pundits analyse these models and advise on the various marketing tactics. The analyses which were modeled for helping trading have now enslaved the trading. It has rather become a tool in hands of punters to fool gullible investors who come to markets in hope of earning but end up loosing all they have.
               In most studies it has been ascertained that people earn only 10% of the times, on rest occasions they loose. So what is the solution??? Day trading may be treated as bad as gambling. Futures trading is also a  sort of betting. Hence retail investors should indulge in long term investing only. Carefully chosen and balanced portfolios invested with a horizon of three or more years generally give returns beating inflation and growth together. For this, help of some long standing wealth manager can be taken which are available for a fee.
  

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